Recently，Several mainstream securities firms at home and abroad have released China Heavy Truck.（3808.HK）And Sinotruk（000951.SZ）A research report on，All raised the company's target price.，While maintaining“Buy”Rating。Industrial Securities、Citibank's Research Report on China Heavy Truck（3808.HK）Give“Buy”Rating，The target price is 13..HK $36 and 12.HK $4。AOn the unit side，Southwest Securities vs Sinotruk（000951.SZ）First cover and give“Buy”Rating，Target price 18.Four yuan；GF Securities also gives“Buy”Rating，Judging the reasonable share price is 18..1 yuan/Shares。
Share price performance of the two companies，It also confirms the good expectations of the capital market for its future development.。28 trading days from November 1 to December 8，Sinotruk（3808.HK）Up 48.86%，Sinotruk(000951.SZ)Up 36.66%，Both led the heavy Truck industry sector.。
Sell-side institutions are bullish on the share prices of the two companies.，The main reason given is based on the low base of the industry in 2022.、Sustained macroeconomic recovery、Strong performance of new energy heavy truck and export，Heavy truck industry is expected to be close to the end of the downward cycle.，Next year's heavy truck market is worth looking forward to；At the same time, as the leading heavy truck company in China,，Since this year, the company's market share has steadily increased.、Continued strong export performance、Launch of high-end products，Look forward to the further improvement of the company's profitability in 2023.。
2022，China's heavy truck industry has been in the doldrums for a whole year.，Public data shows，1-November，China's heavy truck market sales fell more than 55% year-on-year%。Southwest Securities said，Cliff-like decline of heavy truck market in 2022，The main reason is that the rapid growth in the past few years has overdrawn future sales.。However, from May 2021 to July 2022, heavy truck sales fell 15 times in a row, making the consumption overdraft effect basically clear.，Moderate recovery of heavy truck sales since August，9、Sales recovered and remained at 4% in October.More than 50,000 Vehicles，The year-on-year decline was also significantly narrowed.。In terms of destocking，CITIC Securities said，As the national five Vehicles have been basically eliminated.，The inventory situation has improved significantly compared with last year and the first half of this year.，Industry inflection point has been gradual，It is predicted that the sales volume of heavy trucks will reach 900,000 in 2023.。
In addition，Heavy truck industry is expected to usher in a new round of replacement cycle。CITIC Securities believes，The average replacement cycle of heavy truck industry is 7-8 years。The last heavy truck bull market cycle was from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2021.，It is expected to start replacement in the fourth quarter of 2023.。
At the same time，Optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies、The introduction of various cost reduction policies is conducive to promoting the industry rebound.。With the epidemic prevention and control“Ten new articles”The promulgation of，The epidemic prevention and control policy has achieved a complete shift.。Since this year, the factors affecting the heavy truck industry are expected to be substantially improved.。
Despite the overall downturn in the industry in 2022，But Sinotruk is under pressure.，It succeeded FAW Jiefang to become the largest enterprise in the heavy truck industry.。From the monthly sales data，Sinotruk Group“List one”The position is more and more stable。The data shows，The first half of this year，Sinotruk won the first place in monthly sales four times.。And so far，Five months in the second half of the year，Sinotruk all ranked first in monthly sales。
Societe Generale Securities believes，Sinotruk（3808.HK）The steady development in adversity is inseparable from the excellent performance of its subdivision plate.。First half of 2022，Sinotruk（3808.HK）Tractor、Dump Truck、Truck、The market share of products in sub-sectors such as special Vehicles has been greatly increased.。At the same time，The company's overseas market performance is excellent，Heavy truck sales share has always been the first in the industry。This October，The company exports more than 10,000 vehicles per month.，A record high，It is expected to achieve high-speed growth in the whole year.。
In addition，Profitability and cost control ability are also important factors for research institutions to look forward to the development of the company.。Sinotruk relies on good cost and expense control to ensure profitability.。Sinotruk（000951.SZ）During the period, the cost rate has been at a low level in the industry.。The first three quarters of this year，The company's net profit margin is 2..7%，Significantly higher than FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor；During the first three quarters, the expense ratio was 2..8%，Year-on-year decrease of 0.0 1 percentage point；Labor cost in the first three quarters was 8.900 million yuan，Year-on-year decline of 27.8%，Labor cost rate is 4%，Year-on-year growth of 1.4 percentage points。
