From recent places “ The two sessions & throughout; In terms of relevant policies, ensuring steady growth has become an important move at the beginning of the New Year in all regions, with the issuance of special bonds and investment in infrastructure as key drivers. Experts believe that with the advance of the issuance schedule and the increase in the scale of special bonds in 2020, the growth rate of infrastructure construction is expected to pick up significantly.
more emphasis on infrastructure investment
Recently, place “ The two sessions & throughout; Crowded. Xinjiang uygur autonomous region, Tibet autonomous region, hebei, shenzhen, henan. The two sessions & throughout; Already opening. From the perspective of local policies, increasing investment in infrastructure has become the focus of steady growth.
Xinjiang uygur autonomous region proposed to strengthen infrastructure construction to promote high-quality economic development; The Tibet autonomous region proposes to put forward the layout of major construction projects and key projects in Tibet on the basis of knowing the current situation of Tibet's economic and social development. Hebei has set a growth rate of over 6% in fixed asset investment by 2020. Shenzhen does not directly set investment targets, but also put forward to do well. Six stability & throughout; Work, focus on improving the quality of urban functions, to build a beautiful shenzhen.
In addition, there are also a number of investment documents. For example, sichuan printed and distributed the sichuan provincial plan for promoting large and medium-sized water conservancy projects; Jiangxi will be rated as 2020; Project construction acceleration year ” And so on.
The recently held national development and reform commission working meeting proposed to do a good job in the implementation of major project reserves and strive to expand effective investment. National development and reform commission spokesman meng wei said earlier that the commission will bid for 2020 in the field of transportation infrastructure. Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in & throughout; We will plan for specific tasks and objectives, and speed up efforts to make up shortfalls in transportation infrastructure.
local government bonds issued intensively
Closely related to infrastructure investment is the local special bond issue. In the first 10 days of January 2020, many localities disclosed plans to issue local government bonds, especially special bonds.
According to Wind data, the issuance of local government bonds reached 417.9 billion yuan in January 2019, after the early issuance of local government bonds started in 2019. In 2020, the pace of local government bond issuance is ahead of schedule. The ministry of finance has set a partial new special debt ceiling of 1 trillion yuan for 2020 ahead of schedule. As of January 10, local governments have disclosed that they plan to issue 521.094 billion yuan of local government bonds between January 2 and 17, of which only 27.494 billion yuan is general bonds.
Notably, sichuan plans to issue a total of 47 special bond issues worth 50.738 billion yuan on Tuesday and Sunday, according to the China bond information network. From the perspective of usage, these funds include toll roads, water projects, ecological and environmental protection projects, urban and rural infrastructure projects, industrial parks, hospitals, schools and other livelihood projects.
Experts predict that a higher proportion of special debt funds will be invested in infrastructure investment in 2020. The chief fixed-income analyst at citic securities said that in the first quarter of 2020, the plan has been announced for the use of funds, the use of funds is relatively balanced.
infrastructure investment growth will pick up
Zhang jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley China fortune securities, said there was no overhang in China's overall fixed-asset investment. At the current stage of economic development, it is necessary to maintain a medium-high rate of economic growth, maintain a certain level of growth in fixed asset investment, and continue to increase the accumulation of capital stock.
Jiang chao, chief economist of haitong securities, estimated that the growth rate of infrastructure financing in 2020 will be 11%, a significant rebound from the 5% growth in 2019. At the same time, assuming that the gap between infrastructure financing and infrastructure investment in 2019 and 2020 is slightly narrower than that in 2017, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to recover to around 8%-9% in 2020.
From the perspective of the increment of infrastructure financing, jiang chao believed that the biggest contribution came from the improvement of self-raised funds, mainly due to the strength of special debt issuance and the weakening of non-standard drag, followed by funds from other sources and again from within the budget. In terms of the improvement in growth rate, the biggest improvement came from other sources of funds and self-raised funds.
Song yaqin, vice President of da-yue consulting and research institute, believes that if we can combine the two policy tools of special debt and PPP organically and complement each other's strengths, it is expected to give full play to their synergistic role in stabilizing growth, promoting investment and strengthening the weak points, and strengthen counter-cyclical economic regulation.
