Since the fourth quarter of last year, with the Six stability & throughout; Policies have been implemented step by step. De-stocking has slowed down, external demand has stabilized, and domestic demand has slowed down. Especially in terms of fixed assets investment, the investment in the short - board area continues to grow.
In the first 11 months of last year, investment in social sectors grew by 12.6 percent year-on-year, 7.4 percentage points higher than the total. Investment in road transport grew by 8.8 percent, 0.7 percentage points faster than in the first 10 months of last year and 0.3 percentage points faster than in the same period of 2018.
Reporter statistics found that recently 29 institutions on the whole year 2019 cumulative fixed asset investment data for the forecast, the average forecast of its year-on-year growth of 5.4%.
Qin tai, senior analyst at shenwan hongyuan macro, said the financing environment is good, and infrastructure investment may continue to improve slightly, and the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (full caliber) is expected to increase slightly to 3.6% in December. In terms of manufacturing investment, consumer demand rose steadily in the fourth quarter and the export environment improved. It is expected that manufacturing investment will remain relatively stable in December, with the cumulative growth rate rising slightly to 2.6%. In terms of real estate investment, the growth rate of land purchase fees is still expected to decline, and real estate investment may still face downward pressure. But the pace of property investment is expected to slow to 10 per cent in December, taking into account the support from active jian 'an investment. The cumulative growth rate of fixed-asset investment may remain at 5.2 percent last year.
Citic construction securities macro bond chief analyst huang wentao said otherwise. Huang wentao believes that considering that January 2020 is the peak period for special debt financing and infrastructure development, the previous December 2019 should be the stage of preparation and capacity accumulation, the performance of infrastructure investment in the same period may be relatively flat, adding to the base increase in the same period last year, and the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to decline slightly. The monthly growth rate of real estate sales in December 2019 is likely to decline. Industrial enterprises' profit growth picked up in November last year, and the cumulative profit growth rate may show that the industrial enterprises' profit cycle has bottomed out, and the PPI rebound expectation has strengthened the profit cycle bottoming out and recovery expectation, and manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize. Overall, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to slow down slightly in 2019.
Li chao, chief macro researcher at huatai securities, said in an interview with securities daily yesterday that manufacturing investment growth is likely to remain at around 2.5 percent for the whole of 2019. The positive logic of future manufacturing investment: first, high-tech manufacturing investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Second, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to increase in 2020, while real estate investment will be stable. The policy stimulus variables related to domestic demand are expected to be reflected early in the year. Last December the central economic work conference stressed The proactive fiscal policy needs to improve its quality and efficiency, pay more attention to structural adjustment, and ensure that key areas are well protected. . The focus of this year's fiscal policy is on upgrading infrastructure, with an additional special debt quota of 3 trillion yuan by 2020. Recently, the ministry of finance has approved the issuance of new quota of some special bonds in 2020 ahead of schedule, and is likely to speed up issuance in the first quarter of this year to form the physical workload. This positive change may bring about the upward growth of infrastructure construction.
In terms of property development investment, Mr Li said the resilience of property investment growth was still higher than market expectations at the start of last year. In terms of economic growth, the market has now formed a more consistent expectation for a rebound in infrastructure investment next year, with the property investment trend more divergent. The resilience of the property sector may not be underestimated. From the micro point of view, housing enterprises still have the active replenishment, maintenance of new start and construction needs, and this is also housing enterprises to recover the pre-sale money, relieve the pressure of cash flow. The accumulative negative growth of land purchase and completed area continues to narrow, and the willingness of real estate developers to replenish inventory will support the investment data. Source: People's Daily
