At the beginning of the year, the central ministries and commissions held the 2020 work conference. Up to now, there have been more than 10 ministries and commissions such as the central bank, the ministry of finance and the national development and reform commission. The first part of the New Year The full text, each front has begun a new journey.
Economy in 2020; Stability & throughout; First, infrastructure is one of the important cornerstones. Time weekly reporters found that the ministry's work meetings have released the signal of steady growth of infrastructure. According to the specific measures taken by the ministries and commissions, the construction of transportation, communication infrastructure and urban reconstruction are expected to be important construction directions in 2020.
Yao jingyuan, a special researcher with the state council counsellors' office, told time weekly. Increasing the scale of investment in infrastructure projects is an important means to stabilize economic growth. . 2020 as a moderately prosperous society in all respects and ldquo; Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in & throughout; In the final year of the plan, investment should play a key role in stabilizing economic growth.
According to wang jun, chief economist of central plains bank and member of the academic committee of China center for international economic exchanges, infrastructure investment in 2020 will surpass that in 2019.
& other; Real estate investment has slowed down, and it is expected that the real estate weakness will continue for some time in 2020 under the background of strict macro-control policies. The growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2019 is also relatively slow. Considering the lack of credit and overcapacity and other factors, manufacturing investment in 2020 will rebound from the low level, but not too much. From the perspective of counter-cyclical adjustment, the recovery rebound of infrastructure investment will be more obvious in 2020, which will effectively hedge against economic downturn and investment downturn. Throughout the &; Wang jun further expressed.
delineate three major directions of infrastructure investment
Specific review of the ministries and commissions in 2020 “ Big & throughout; Transportation, network and communication infrastructure construction and urban transformation have been mentioned repeatedly and are expected to be key investment directions in infrastructure construction this year.
In terms of transport construction, the national conference on transport and communications made it clear that by 2020, China will invest 800 billion yuan in railways, 1.8 trillion yuan in highways and waterways, and 90 billion yuan in civil aviation.
From the perspective of existing policies, by the end of 2019, the national development and reform commission had approved several rounds of infrastructure projects. According to the statistics of times weekly, the number of projects has exceeded 50, with a total investment of over 1.5 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below). In terms of the approval of investment projects, highways, high-speed railways, airports and other areas are the focus.
In 2020, transportation infrastructure will continue. Throughout the crush &; . The medium - and long-term railway network plan (2016) calls for 150,000 km of railways to be in service by 2020 and 45,000 km of high-speed rail by 2030. By the end of 2019, China will have 139,000 km of railways in operation and 35,000 km of high-speed railways in operation, according to the China national railway corporation.
China's infrastructure growth rate will fluctuate around 4% in 2019, lower than the growth rate of fixed asset investment and economic growth in the same period, according to the China macroeconomic analysis and forecast released by the China institute of economic thought and practice at tsinghua university and the China and world economic research center. In other words, infrastructure investment has been a drag on fixed-asset investment growth for more than a year.
Yao jingyuan expressed, “ China is still a developing country and has a lot of potential in infrastructure development. .
In this context, infrastructure projects are expected to grow further in 2020. Previously, the central economic work conference has set the tone for the development of infrastructure.
Meeting is clear, look to the long-term development of the state, and strengthening strategic, network infrastructure construction, promote the sichuan-tibet railway and other major projects, steadily push forward communication network construction, speed up the natural disaster prevention and control of the implementation of major projects, strengthen the municipal pipe network, the urban parking lot, cold chain logistics, such as construction, speed up the construction of rural highway, information, such as water conservancy facilities.
In addition, in terms of network infrastructure construction, the national conference on industry and information technology made it clear that the construction of 5G network should be steadily promoted and all prefecture-level cities in China should achieve 5G network coverage by the end of 2020, with the focus on supporting in-depth network coverage in border areas and remote areas. In the more conventional infrastructure projects old residential renovation, is also expected to usher in a new round of policy dividends.
At the national conference on housing and urban-rural development, it was made clear that efforts should be made to improve rural housing and the living environment, renovate old residential areas in cities and towns, and classify household waste. We will make all-out efforts to renovate dilapidated houses in rural areas and improve their housing conditions and living environment.
In addition, 2020 is also the year of the end of China's shantytown reform program. The national plan for a new type of urbanization (2014-2020) clearly states that the task of rebuilding urban shantytowns should be basically completed by 2020.
Su peike, chief researcher of the institute of public policy research at the university of international business and economics, told time weekly in an interview that as a new field, 5G infrastructure investment is likely to increase in 2020. The old city renovation and other projects are more conventional infrastructure projects. & other; Although projects related to real estate, such as the renovation of old residential areas, are worthy of attention, we still have to wait for the actual situation of local financial budgets in 2020. Throughout the &; Supeiko points out.
$& other; Gift bag & throughout; Send
ahead of time
In addition to project support, the capital construction industry is expected to receive financial support in 2020.
The ministry of finance has sent a gift package worth 1 trillion yuan ahead of schedule to set a new special debt limit for 2020. To ensure that the effective use of early next year, to ensure that the physical workload, as early as possible to form an effective pull on the economy. .
The state council had previously made clear that special bonds issued in advance could not be invested in land reserve and real estate-related areas. From the special debt situation announced by local governments at present, the funds mainly flow into railway, highway, water conservancy and other infrastructure construction.
Mr. Wang said it was impossible to predict the amount of special debt flowing into infrastructure investment, depending on the physical sector's demand for infrastructure and the specific areas of credit follow-up.
In addition to the Treasury's dividend. Throughout central mom &; We also spent real money to support infrastructure investment in key areas. The people's bank of China announced that on January 6, 2020, the people's bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds. The working conference of the people's bank of China in 2020 further clarified that the central bank should We will encourage financial institutions to support key areas, major projects and major projects under construction, and promote high-quality development in the manufacturing sector. .
In addition, the recently held national conference on development and reform also proposed to ensure the implementation of major project reserves and expand effective investment.
Yao predicted that the fiscal deficit ratio could be expanded to 3 percent by 2020. In terms of monetary policy, the central economic work conference has decided to adjust monetary policy from being moderately loose to being moderately flexible. It is expected that the RRR will be further lowered in 2020. & other; This year, domestic infrastructure investment, relatively adequate capital. It is suggested that we introduce more large-scale infrastructure projects with strong driving force to strengthen the weak links of people's livelihood. Throughout the &; Yao jingyuan said.
Supeiko suggests, “ In the past few years, when a large amount of fiscal investment was made in infrastructure construction, the cash flow income of local governments was relatively weak. At present, the investment quota of local governments is limited. If private capital is introduced, the incremental funds available for investment will increase relatively. Throughout the &; Time weekly reporters noted that despite the approach of the Spring Festival and the cold weather, the construction industry is still active. The business activity index and new orders index of the civil engineering construction industry were 57.0 percent and 60.6 percent in December 2019, up 0.7 percent and 5.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month, according to the bureau of statistics. Affected by the accelerated implementation of infrastructure construction projects and other factors, the number of new engineering contracts signed by the civil engineering and construction industry increased significantly and production was relatively active.
In addition, the manufacturing PMI for December 2019 was unchanged from the previous month at 50.2 per cent. Zhao qinghe, a senior statistician with the service sector survey center of the national bureau of statistics, said the manufacturing PMI has been above the line of expansion and contraction for two consecutive months.
