August 19, 2024
SDIC Securities recently released a weekly report on the construction industry.:1-Water conservancy in July/Railway investment increased year on year,Speeding up the issuance of special bonds in August,Recommend infrastructure central enterprises and high prosperity nuclear construction leader。
The following is a summary of the study.:
This week's investment advice:
1-Infrastructure construction in a narrow sense in July、The amount of capital construction investment completed in a broad sense increased by 4..90%、8.14%,Respectively ring ratio-0.5pct、+0.44pct。In the three major sub-items of capital construction,The growth rate of electric heating, gas and water investment continued to maintain a high level.,1-July,Investment in electric heating, gas and water increased by 23..80%,The second is transportation.、Warehousing and postal services,Investment increased by 8% year-on-year.20%(Ring ratio+1.60pct),Water Conservancy、Investment in the environment and public facilities management industry increased by 0..70%(The ring ratio is flat)。In the major sub-sectors of infrastructure,1-July,The growth rate of investment in water conservancy management industry ranks first in all sub-sectors and continues to increase.,28.9%(Ring ratio+1.5pct),Or mainly due to the acceleration of projects supported by additional issuance of treasury bonds.;The year-on-year growth rate of investment in the railway transport industry was 17.2%,Remain high。
The issuance of local government special bonds in August was significantly faster than that in July.,Since the beginning of August, 4147 new local government special bonds have been issued.9.7 billion yuan, June 、The issue size for the whole month of July was 3326.7.2 billion yuan、2814.7.1 billion yuan,August 1-18th,The net financing amount of new special debt of local governments is 2132.5.4 billion yuan,Much higher than in June、Net financing in July。It is expected that the issuance scale of follow-up special bonds will maintain a relatively fast pace.,The influence of superimposed weather is weakened.,Project construction progress is expected to speed up,Simultaneous efforts on the demand side and the capital side。
August 16,The Fifth Plenary Session of the State Council was held.,It is proposed that we should unswervingly accomplish the economic and social development goals and tasks throughout the year.,Make great efforts to enhance the sustained economic recovery to a better trend。In terms of investment,Expanding investment should give full play to the leading role of government investment,Implementing policies to support private investment,We will expand the use of local government special bonds as capital.、Scale、Proportion,Leverage broader social investment。Next stage,With the continuous increase of capital support for infrastructure construction,Accelerated issuance of government bonds,Speeding up the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and special bonds,In order to promote security capacity building in major national strategies and key areas.,Steady growth of infrastructure investment throughout the year,Continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of the leading state-owned enterprises with low valuation。
In the field of construction industry segmentation,Nuclear power construction sector follows the demand of nuclear power industry to maintain a high degree of prosperity.,It is an area with strong downstream demand in the construction industry.,According to the information released by China Nuclear Energy Industry Association,,There are 56 nuclear power units in operation in China.(Excluding Taiwan),The total installed capacity is 58GW(Rated installed capacity),“Fourteen five”The plan clearly States that the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach 70GW,At present, 26 nuclear power units are under construction.,Total installed capacity 30.30GW。Nuclear power project is the midstream of nuclear power industry.,It has high barrier characteristics,Previously, the approved units gradually entered the peak period of construction.,The progress of stock projects and the approval of new units all create the demand for nuclear power construction.,Nuclear Power Construction Leading Orders Increase,The performance is flexible,Focus on China's nuclear construction investment opportunities。
It is recommended to pay attention:
1)Steady growth of infrastructure investment,Speeding up the issuance of special bonds,Superimpose the reform of state-owned enterprises to promote,Low valuation construction central enterprises are expected to fully benefit:China Railway、China Communications Construction、Chinese architecture、China Smelter、China Railway Construction Corporation;
2)Speed up the signing of new overseas orders,It is suggested that attention should be paid to international engineering service providers with outstanding competitiveness in overseas subdivisions.:Sinoma International、Sinosteel International;
3)The prosperity of nuclear power is on the rise,Industry capital expenditure is expected to continue to accelerate,It is recommended to pay attention:China Nuclear Construction;
4. Promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises,The dividend ratio of central state-owned enterprises is expected to increase in the future.,The investment value of high dividend and high dividend is highlighted.:Chinese architecture、Tunnel shares、Anhui Construction Engineering、Sinoma International;
Suggestions on the main line of medium and long-term allocation:
Infrastructure investment will continue to grow steadily in 2024,With the trillion-dollar treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects, construction continued.,Speeding up the Examination and Approval of Local Government Special Debt Projects,Physical workload shall be formed as soon as possible,It is expected to support the growth of infrastructure investment throughout the year.。Real estate policy continues loose tone,The downward trend of the real estate industry can be expected to improve。Many leading enterprises in the construction industry actively expand their international layout,Overseas engineering construction releases market demand increment。At present, the fundamentals of the construction industry are sound as a whole.,The concentration of infrastructure central enterprises and local infrastructure leading industries continued to increase.,Superimposed reform of state-owned enterprises、Encourage dividends and market value management to continue to advance,The valuation is expected to improve。It is suggested to pay attention to the leading infrastructure with low valuation.、Leading state-owned enterprises in local infrastructure、High-quality targets of international projects and related sectors of urban village reconstruction:
(1)Low valuation construction central enterprises:Steady growth of infrastructure investment,With the promotion of the reform of state-owned enterprises,Operating indicators of construction central enterprises are expected to improve,Market value management of central enterprises is fully implemented,Helping to improve the valuation of central enterprises with low valuation,It is recommended to pay attention:Chinese architecture、China Communications Construction、China Railway Construction Corporation、China Railway and CCCC Design Co., Ltd., a high-quality design target with stable operation。
(2)High-quality local state-owned enterprises:The financial situation of the region where the business is located is relatively superior.,The company's own operation is stable.,Expand the industrial chain around the main business,Cash flow orROEThe performance is brilliant,It is recommended to pay attention:Tunnel shares、Subway design。
(3)Real estate chain design target:Real estate policy continues loose tone,The downward trend of the real estate industry can be expected to improve,Front-end high-quality design targets are expected to usher in fundamental improvement and valuation improvement.。It is recommended to pay attention:Huayang International。
(4)Go to sea high-quality tap:Under the trend of stable growth of domestic infrastructure,Offshore enterprises are expected to create new support points for long-term business growth,It is suggested to pay attention to the high proportion of overseas business.,Overseas orders continue to grow,International engineering service providers with outstanding competitiveness in overseas segments:Sinoma International、Sinosteel International;
(5)Architecture+Business Model Dominant Stocks:It is different from the traditional project contracting enterprises.,Manufacturing mode and equipment、Operation and maintenance and other areas of change in the stock more benefit from the business model brought about by the improvement of operating indicators and future valuation.。It is recommended to pay attention:Sinoma International。
Risk warning:Policy implementation falls short of expectations、Downside risks to the economy、Investment in fixed assets declined、Real estate recovery falls short of expectations、The risk of slow growth of local finance, etc.。(Dong Wenjing of SDIC Securities,Chen Yifan )
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