Recently，Goldman Sachs issued a focus on photovoltaic.、Lithium battery、New energy Vehicles、Air conditioner、 Iron and steel 、Research Report on Capacity Cycle of Power Semiconductor and Construction Machinery Industries。These seven industries represent China's manufacturing industry.（Occupying 2023GDP6.6%），There is also excess capacity.（Contributed 2023GDPGrowth 21.9%），It is also a typical example of manufacturing industry going to sea.（Average overseas market share from 27 in 2020.0%Rapid growth to 37% in 2023.0%）。
This research report develops a balanced relationship between supply and demand in the market.、Industry average capacity utilization rate、Cash flow、Profit margin、The current situation and development trend of the seven major industries are comprehensively analyzed in terms of debt ratio and capital expenditure.。And more than 50 in the industry%Profitability and debt pressure of the above enterprises（EBITDAInterest coverage less than five times）Reaching a period of inability to drive capital acquisition and expansion，And combine with that changing trend of the demand side market（Expenditure on assets/Sales）It is regarded as the bottom of the industry.“Critical point”。
Based on this analysis framework, the current construction machinery industry is analyzed，According to the research report：
1. Market supply and demand：2023，The production capacity of construction machinery is about 7% of the domestic market demand.Twice，1% of global demand.1 times，Capacity utilization rate is about 30.0%。
2. Current situation of enterprise operation：First quarter of 2024，Prices of construction machinery products were flat year on year.，There are 74.0%The net operating cash flow is zero or negative.。
3. Enterprises go to sea：2023，China's supply of construction machinery products accounts for 33% of the world's total supply.0%，Export volume accounts for 53% of production capacity.0%；Compared to 2020，Exports tripled in 2023，Overseas market share from 11.0%Up to 21.0%，Of these, 21.0%The products are sold to the United States and the European Union.。
4. Overseas market competitiveness：The average production cost of domestic construction machinery is 8% lower than that of overseas counterparts.0%~46.0%；
5. Industry development prospects：With the stabilization of new real estate construction and the industry entering the equipment renewal cycle.，Domestic market demand is expected to be 2024-Hit bottom in 2025。But，Because the upgrading of equipment is the only supporting factor.，Normalized demand levels may be lower than in previous years。Structural oversupply will continue。
Domestic market demand for construction machinery in 2024-Hit bottom in 2025，It is the consensus of most practitioners in the industry.。1-July，Excavator domestic sales 5.960,000 units，Year-on-year growth of 6.23%；Loader domestic sales 3.340,000 units，The year-on-year decline narrowed to 0..36%。Apparently，According to the domestic sales data of main products such as Excavators and loaders，The domestic market demand for construction machinery has bottomed out.。
According to the export data in the first half of the year，1-Export volume of construction machinery in June 258.$3.7 billion，Year-on-year growth of 3.38%；That compares with exports of 249..$9.2 billion，Year-on-year growth of 25 percent.80%，The growth rate declined significantly and stabilized.。
Goldman Sachs believes that the ratio of asset expenditure to sales revenue in the construction machinery industry has been at a low level.，2024-In 2025, it is expected that the asset expenditure of the whole industry will shrink by 12 in the past year or so.%，While sales increased by 6 percent%。This means that the construction machinery industry has entered the reduction of production capacity.、Demand is picking up，The critical point at which the imbalance between supply and demand in the market begins to be gradually repaired。
But，As Goldman Sachs has analyzed.，As the demand side of the real estate and infrastructure market has not improved significantly.，Domestic market demand is only supported by the demand for equipment renewal at the industry end.，It not only makes the normal market demand after the bottom of the downward cycle still at a low level.，And structural（Products、 Region 、Market segments and customer groups, etc.）The oversupply will continue.。
Excess production capacity still needs to rely on low-cost advantages to continue to increase overseas market share to digest.，The domestic market may be in a long-term structural supply-demand relationship repair cycle.，Product prices are difficult to recover quickly.，The white-hot involution competition will continue.。
