Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, 14 November 《China Securities Journal》Articles published on the 14th《Policy forms a joint force, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to increase.》。According to the article，In the near future，Statement by relevant responsible persons of multiple departments，As soon as possible, the national debt funds should be allocated to eligible projects.、Part of the new local government debt quota for 2024 will be issued in advance.。Experts believe that，Projects and funds are gradually in place.，Policies form a resultant force，Will effectively drive the expansion of investment，Promote the growth of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter of this year and even in the first half of next year.。
Many places seize the opportunity of issuing additional treasury bonds
The central government will issue 1 trillion yuan of 2023 treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year.。In the near future，Many places have stepped up the deployment and done a good job in the reserve of additional treasury bond projects.。
For example，Sichuan Province recently held a teleconference on economic operation and dispatch in the fourth quarter of 2023.，Do a good job of project planning and reserve，Grasp the opportunity of issuing additional treasury bonds and strive for the greatest support，Deepen the preliminary work of the project。Hebei Provincial Communications Department recently held a video conference on accelerating post-disaster recovery and reconstruction work and promoting project construction.，It is proposed to seize the great opportunity for the state to issue additional treasury bonds.，Speed up the restoration and reconstruction of roads damaged by floods in an all-round way，Make every effort to promote the construction of key projects in the next two months of this year，Carefully plan the construction tasks of key projects in 2024。
Cong Liang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently.，The issuance of additional treasury bonds is of special significance under the current situation.，It is conducive to speeding up post-disaster recovery and reconstruction in key areas of China.、Enhance disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities，Ease the pressure of local expenditure、Support the construction of local projects。Insist on funds and elements to follow the project、The project follows the plan.，As soon as possible, the national debt funds should be allocated to eligible projects.。
Industry insiders believe that，The issuance of additional treasury bonds will strongly support steady growth in the fourth quarter of this year and even in the first half of next year.。According to estimates by China Chengxin International，If we do not consider the multiplier effect of fiscal leverage.，Additional issuance of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds will directly increase investment in fixed assets.，However, due to the issuance of bonds,、Project reserve、Declaration and so on will take time.，And the operating rate is low in winter.，It still takes a long time to form actual investment expenditure.，It is assumed that the proportion of physical workload formed in the fourth quarter of this year is 20%，It can pull this year.GDPAbout 0.16 percentage points、 Next year GDPAbout 0.59 percentage points。
Early approval and extension of special debt
Local government special bonds to promote the expansion of effective investment、It plays an important role in promoting the overall economic recovery.。Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said recently.，According to the deployment of the State Council and relevant work arrangements，Part of the new local government debt quota for 2024 will be issued in advance.，Reasonable guarantee of local financing needs。
Market participants expect，In the fourth quarter, the new debt limit of trillion yuan in 2024 will be issued to local governments ahead of schedule.。Said Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank.，Judging from the current economic situation and the experience of previous years，Next year, there is a higher probability that the quota will be approved in advance in November or December this year.，So that local governments can start the work of issuing bonds as soon as possible.、Speed up the use of bond funds。
“Since the third quarter，Fiscal policy has significantly improved economic support and expenditure efficiency.。At present，The amount of new special bonds issued throughout the year has been basically completed.，Set aside a sufficient time window for local governments to reserve special debt projects in 2024 ahead of schedule。”Zhang Jun, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, predicted.，Amount of special debt approved in advance or according to 50%To 60%The proportion will be issued this year.。From the policy effect，The early issuance of the special bond quota has a significant effect on the rhythm of bond issuance in the first quarter of the next year.。
To improve the efficiency of the use of funds，The use of special debt funds is also expected to continue to expand.。According to yuan Haixia, Executive Director of Sino-Credit International Research Institute，Follow-up special debt funds should be transferred to new infrastructure、New energy and other national strategies encourage further tilt.。This year's newly incorporated urban village reconstruction and other projects are also expected to become the main focus of special debt.，Continue to provide space for new investment，Further enhance the overall efficiency of funds。
Infrastructure investment is supported
Experts believe that，The issuance of trillion yuan of treasury bonds and the quota of some special bonds for next year will be issued ahead of schedule.，It is expected to give a strong boost to infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter of this year and 2024.。
“The issuance of trillion yuan of treasury bonds has formed a strong support for capital construction funds.，It is expected to boost the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter of this year and 2024.。”Wei Kaixuan, an analyst at GF Securities, predicted.，The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2024 is 6%To 8%Between，Slightly higher than growth in 2023。
Chief Economist of Everbright Securities、Institute director Gao Ruidong said.，The supporting effect of the additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds issued in the fourth quarter on infrastructure will probably be released in 2024.。In addition，Expected new special debt limit in 2024 3.8 trillion yuan，It will also greatly enrich the funds available for infrastructure construction in 2024.。
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said.，The new local debt quota in 2024 is expected to be issued by the end of 2023.，It will be launched in the first quarter of 2024.，Of the additional trillion yuan of treasury bond funds, 500 billion yuan will be carried over to 2024.，Fiscal funds will be more abundant in the first quarter of 2024，Contribute to the preposition of fiscal expenditure。
“In the case of sufficient financial resources，Reserve declared items in advance、Increase the support of project elements in the early stage，Key support‘Fourteen five’Planning high-quality projects or the key to speeding up the landing of financial funds.。”Zhao Wei said。（Finished）
