Twenty ways to optimize epidemic prevention and control，Ten new measures for optimizing epidemic prevention and control recently，Minimizing the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and life has become a consensus from the government level to the grassroots people.，It is expected that with the gradual implementation of the optimized epidemic prevention and control policy,，The recovery of domestic macroeconomic activity has become a clear sign.，Previously, some industries that were greatly affected by the epidemic, such as infrastructure,、Logistics is expected to usher in gradual repair.，At the same time, due to the economic level base in 2022 and the low position of the heavy Truck industry.，The market also generally raised its expectations for the growth of these industries in 2023.。
Leading enterprise in domestic heavy Truck industry—Take Weichai Power as an example.，HSBC、Yamato、Mainstream financial institutions such as Citigroup have recently upgraded their corporate ratings and target prices.，Investors are advised to actively increase their holdings.。From the actual feedback of the capital market.，Weichai Power Hong Kong stocks(02388.HK)Since 24 October，In more than a month, it has risen as high as 56 from its low point.%，Successfully outperformed the Hang Seng Index，Demonstrate good recognition of the capital market。
Weichai Power Hong Kong stocks(02388.HK)Comparison with the Hang Seng Index
Source：Fortune Securities
In fact，Heavy Truck as an important production tool，It is the target that directly benefits from the increase of economic activity.，At the same time, the heavy truck industry cycle has been at the bottom of the recovery.，Under the double favorable background of superimposed epidemic and industry cycle，It is not difficult to understand the enthusiasm of investors for Weichai Power to actively increase its holdings.。The following plans to further analyze the market prospects of Weichai Power from the two dimensions of industry and company fundamentals.。
The resonance expectation of epidemic policy optimization and industry cycle bottoming
As mentioned earlier，Logistics and infrastructure are one of the industries that are obviously benefited by the optimization of the epidemic policy.，Flush Logistics Index and Infrastructure Engineering Index have fully reflected this optimistic expectation.。
Flush Logistics Index
Source：Straight flush
Flush Infrastructure Project Index
Source：Straight flush
Start from logic.，The recovery of logistics and infrastructure is also very clear.。
For logistics，The result of epidemic policy optimization is the resumption of normal life and production activities.。An increase in economic activity，It will directly bring about an increase in the demand for goods transportation.，For example, the factory can maintain normal production.，It is inevitable that the demand for supply chain parts is much greater than that when the production is stopped.，At the same time, the optimization of epidemic policy also helps to enhance the optimistic expectations of business owners for future production.，Gradually increase investment in production，This will objectively increase the demand for logistics turnover.，Drive the market demand for heavy trucks。
The recovery of infrastructure is also expected to be very obvious.，The core is that infrastructure has become one of the important grasps for the country to promote economic recovery.，Government departments continue to increase the number of policy-oriented financial instruments，To promote the development of infrastructure construction.。
In terms of the issuance of special debt，First 11 months of this year，The issuance scale of new special bonds nationwide exceeds 4 trillion yuan.，A record high。In addition，Many regions have also begun to plan to reserve special debt projects for next year.。So，There is no shortage of funds for infrastructure.，Previously mainly due to the impact of the epidemic，The speed of physical workload formed by capital construction is slow.，As a result, the promotion effect of heavy truck transportation and other industrial chain links is not obvious.，With the optimization of epidemic policy, the formation of physical workload of infrastructure construction is accelerated.，The transmission of funds to heavy trucks and other industrial chain links will be smoother.，Stimulate the recovery of heavy truck industry。
Back to the heavy truck industry cycle.，The market generally believes that the heavy truck industry will recover in 2023.。Southwest Securities pointed out，Since last May.，Heavy truck market has encountered“19 consecutive drops”，Heavy Truck Sales Fall to Freezing Point。However, the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 10% since August%Left and right，There is a certain phenomenon of sales recovery.。Latest November figures show sales of 4.50,000 units，Year-on-year decline of about 12 percent%，Mainly by Guangzhou、Impact of epidemic situation in Chongqing and other places。
In addition，From the perspective of renewal demand，Generally, the renewal cycle of heavy trucks in China is about 7 years.，Seven years after the low peak of heavy truck sales in 2015, it just corresponds to 2022.，As a result, the demand for renewal is low this year.，And 16、Sales in 2017 increased significantly year-on-year.，The corresponding 7 years later is 23、24 years，It means from 2023.，The demand for renewal is also expected to increase significantly.。
So all things considered，Further optimization of epidemic policy will drive logistics、Infrastructure and other downstream demand recovery，As well as the new incremental demand brought by heavy truck renewal.，We can be optimistic about the recovery of heavy truck sales.，At present, we should focus on the leading enterprises with performance certainty.。
Weichai Power takes the lead in achieving performance recovery，The advantages of diversified layout are highlighted
According to the third quarter performance of Weichai Power，The net profit of the company's core business has achieved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth.。
This is mainly due to the successful diversified business layout of Weichai Power.，Despite the decline in heavy truck industry sales in the past two years，But Weichai is in the off-road market.、High-end engine with large cylinder bore、Agricultural equipment、Intelligent logistics、New energy and intelligent networking and other fields continue to develop.，Build the company's product quality、Core performance and cost advantages，By providing customers with cost-effective products，Achieve the common prosperity of diversified business portfolio，The diversified business structure has effectively improved the anti-volatility of the company's performance.。
For example，Weichai always insists on maintaining good investment in the core technology of heavy trucks.，So that the company's products in the market can show excellent competitiveness.，Increase the market share of Weichai products，Especially in the industry trough.，Weichai's technological advantages are becoming more and more obvious.。
November 20，Weichai released the world's first body thermal efficiency 52.28%Commercial products of diesel engine，In 2020, the thermal efficiency of diesel engine body will exceed 50.23%、Breakthrough 51 in January this year.09%On the basis of，Once again, a new global record was set.。GF Securities pointed out，Weichai has repeatedly made technological breakthroughs in the core component of the engine.，It not only reflects the first-class technical level.，It also makes a positive contribution to the improvement of the technical level and market competitiveness of the whole Vehicle.。The data shows，The third quarter of this year，Weichai Power's Heavy Truck Engine Installed Rate Exceeds 35%，A further increase of 6 percentage points over the same period last year。Among，Weichai's high-end heavy truck engine products with more than 500 horsepower have achieved more remarkable results in increasing market share.。According to the company's announcement.，This year 1-The company doubled its share of the market in October.。
Strong technological and product advantages are also reflected in Weichai's export business.，Engine export sales in the first three quarters increased by more than 40% year-on-year%，Export sales of heavy trucks increased by 77 percent%；Third quarter，Engine、Heavy truck export sales increased by 60% year-on-year%、125%。Obviously, the contribution rate of export business to the company's sales growth is gradually expanding.，The same is true for large-bore high-end engine products.，In the first three quarters, the company's overseas sales of large-bore high-end engines accounted for about 47%；Third quarter，Large-bore high-end engines account for about 50% of overseas market sales%。Good performance of large-bore engines in overseas markets，It also verifies Weichai's technology and product strength once again.，High-end products can be unanimously recognized by domestic and foreign customers.。
Belonging to the field of agricultural equipment of new business.，According to relevant public information，Net profit in the first three quarters has exceeded 800 million yuan.，Exceeding last year's annual net profit，It shows Weichai's good business performance in the field of agricultural equipment.。It is reported that，At the end of October, Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture cooperated with Beidahuang Agricultural Reclamation Group，High-powered Tractors will be further increased.、Large feeding Harvester and other high-end intelligent agricultural equipment，Therefore, we can maintain optimistic expectations for the continued growth of Weichai's agricultural equipment business.。
Focus on Weichai's Intelligent Logistics Business，Affected by the order cycle and the supply chain pressure brought by high inflation in Europe and the United States.，Kion posted a loss of nearly 100 million euros in the third quarter of this year.，However, the author believes that the loss is only a phased result.，The signal of Weichai intelligent logistics performance recovery has appeared.。
One of them，Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's continuous high-intensity interest rate hike，Drive the central banks of major overseas countries into a round of rapid interest rate increase rhythm.，At present, the Fed's interest rate hike is nearing the end.，There are preliminary signals that the effect of interest rate hikes on inflation has subsided.，According to the analysis of market institutions，Core of the United States in late 2023CPIExpected to fall back to 3％，CPIFall back to 2.8％，Therefore, it is expected that overseasCPIAfter entering the descending channel，Will ease pressure on overseas supply chains，Good for Kion Group's performance recovery。
Second，Kion Group is stepping up its efforts to reduce costs and optimize project management processes.，It is also committed to building and strengthening the network of spare parts suppliers.，Implement an agile price adjustment strategy，With a view to adopting internal management reforms.，Enhance the risk resistance of Kion Group's operation and improve the profit level pertinently.。
Take the price adjustment strategy as an example.，It includes the inclusion of price adjustment clauses in all project contracts，Optimize how to make a quote，Further improve the initial solution design of the project、And pay more attention to the risk management of the whole product portfolio.。The author believes that，This strategy is very targeted to optimize the profit level of Kion Group.，It is also very necessary，Especially in the highly volatile global macroeconomic environment.。The reason is，As opposed to a regular fixed price contract，Limited by the time mismatch between order signing and performance，The actual cost at the time of performance may not reflect the estimated price at the time the order was placed，This gap is exacerbated by high inflation.，After adopting the price adjustment strategy，Kion Group can better solve this contradiction.。
Therefore, the above two points are combined.，The author believes that，Weichai's intelligent logistics performance is facing greater resilience.。Southwest Securities also said.，The short-term performance pressure of Kion Group does not affect the long-term value growth of Weichai Intelligent Logistics Business.，Watch Kaiao+Dematic's overall supply chain solution is expected to help Weichai's intelligent logistics business continue to grow.。
Overlay the optimistic expectation of the overall demand recovery of the heavy truck industry，The valuation center of heavy truck industry is expected to move up.。The author believes that，Weichai's technological advantages in the field of heavy trucks may succeed in realizing greater commercial value.，Diversified business layout also benefits the company to form a variety of income-generating channels.，It makes Weichai's performance growth more deterministic and growth potential.，So as to achieve the trend of double growth of valuation and performance.。Big banks have upgraded their investment ratings.，Against the backdrop of rising stock prices and prices，It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the high-quality target of Weichai Power.。
