The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the investment in fixed assets in October at 10:00 on November 15.（Excluding farmers）、Data of total retail sales of consumer goods and industrial added value above designated size。
In terms of investment，Many institutions believe that，1-Growth in China's fixed-asset investment in October may be flat at 5.9%；Among，Manufacturing in October、The growth rate of infrastructure investment may remain high，Real estate investment is still in the bottom stage.，Infrastructure and manufacturing are still the main support for fixed asset investment.。In terms of consumption，Consumption Growth in October May Decline Further。
Source of data：Wind
Investment growth in October may be flat year-on-year
In terms of investment，Many institutions believe that，1-The year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in October may be flat at 5.9%；On the sub-item，Due to the continuous attention of the policy side，The Growth Rate of Manufacturing Investment in October May Be the Same as Last Month，Continue high growth rate；Real estate investment is still in the bottom stage.；Infrastructure and manufacturing are still the main support for fixed asset investment.。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics,，The first three quarters，National investment in fixed assets（Excluding farmers）Year-on-year growth of 5.9%。Among，Manufacturing、Capital construction、The growth rate of real estate investment was 10.1%、8.6%And-8%。
Right 1-Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets investment in October，CICC Macro、Macro Research Department of Societe Generale Research、The forecast values of Li Chao's macro team of Zheshang Securities are 5..9%、5.9%And 5.8%。
Manufacturing investment，Many institutions believe that，The decline of export growth in the early stage and the weak profits and expectations of manufacturing enterprises may suppress the willingness of enterprises to invest.，And the fourth quarter of the implementation of the equipment renewal loan.、The preferential tax deduction policy for equipment purchase will support manufacturing investment in October.。Expected 1-In October, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was basically flat at 10%。
Look at policy support specifically.，On September 7, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress pointed out，Fourth quarter，For the purchase of equipment by high-tech enterprises,，Allow one-time pre-tax full deduction and 100%Additional deduction；Press 75 for current%Pre-tax additional deduction of R & D expenses，Unify to 100%，Encourage the renovation and renewal of equipment；Expenditures on basic research such as scientific research institutions funded by enterprises，Full deduction before tax。
The decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on September 13，Yeah, manufacturing、Social services and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises、Individual industrial and commercial households and other equipment renovation in the fourth quarter，Support banks with no more than 3.2%Interest rate for medium and long-term loans。The People's Bank of China is based on 100% of the loan principal%Give special re-loan。The amount of re-loans is 200 billion yuan.，Term: 1 year、It can be extended twice。Implementation of the fixed central financial discount 2.5%Policy，In the fourth quarter of this year, the actual loan cost of the loan entity for the renovation of equipment is not higher than 0..7%。
Infrastructure investment，CICC Macro said，The growth rate of power installed capacity may reach a peak in the fourth quarter.，Although the traditional infrastructure has been supported by financial funds, it has declined.，But quasi-finance will continue to exert its strength.。In terms of physical quantity of capital construction，Cement and other building materials operating rate rebounded year on year, but showed a small accumulation phenomenon.，Site construction and cross-city transportation of building materials may be disturbed by the epidemic.，The physical formation of infrastructure may be less than market expectations.，We still need to continue to track the progress of the epidemic situation in the future.。
Societe Generale Research Macro Research Department also said.，New orders signed by China Electric Power Construction fell from a high level year on year.，The growth rate of investment in electricity and heat may decline.。At the same time，The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant in October was slightly lower than that in September.，Reflecting this month's infrastructure momentum or a slight decline。
Li Chao's macro team said.，With the decline of weather disturbance after September, the follow-up rush is expected.、Quasi-financial tools play a role in replacing finance to promote project progress and form the logic of physical workload.，The probability of infrastructure investment has maintained positive growth.、Maintain strong toughness。Expected 1-Infrastructure investment in October increased by 8% year-on-year.8%。
Real estate investment，CICC Macro said，In October, the CICC real estate boom index was the same as last month.，Among them, the demand is repeated.，Slightly improved supply and financing。Year-on-year growth rate of sales area in October may still be-15%Left and right，“Guarantee the delivery of the building”With policy support，Investment decline or slightly narrowed。
Societe Generale Research Macro Research Department said.，Weakening base，Real estate investment fell or narrowed year-on-year in the same month.。
Li Chao's macro team said.，Expected 1-The cumulative growth rate of investment in real estate development in October was-8.3%，Judging from the current shutdown situation,，Real estate investment may remain under pressure during the year.。It is estimated，Since June, the cumulative growth rate of new net shutdown area in the year has increased significantly year-on-year.，The situation in September has not improved significantly compared with the previous value.。The current relief measures are mainly aimed at the stock of suspended projects.，The decline in the growth rate of completion continued to converge, but the overall shutdown situation has not improved significantly, which means that there may still be incremental shutdown of real estate.。In this context，Future real estate investment may still face downward pressure.，The cumulative growth rate has not yet bottomed out。
According to Wind data，15 institutions to 1-The average forecast for the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in October is 5..9%，The prediction interval is 5.7%To 6.1%；Where 1 is expected-In October, there were 11 institutions whose cumulative investment growth was flat or rising year-on-year.。
Household consumption still has room for an upward rebound.
In terms of consumption，Many institutions believe that，Epidemic rebound disturbs residents' consumption，Consumption Growth in October May Decline Further。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics,，September，Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2..5%。
Year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October，CICC Macro、Macro Research Department of Societe Generale Research、The forecast values of Li Chao's macro team of Zheshang Securities are 0.%、0.7%、1.5%。
CICC Macro said，Domestic epidemic rebound in October，Metro passenger traffic volume in major cities、The decline in the scale of migration across the country was further expanded compared with September.。OctoberPMIThe index of business activity in the services sector fell by 1 percent.9 percentage points to 47%，7-In October, the index dropped by 6 percentage points.，About 3 this year.-Decline in April（9.7 percentage points）62 of%，It reflects that offline consumption activities are facing greater disturbance.。
In terms of catering consumption，Societe Generale Research Macro Research Department said.，The daily average number of new confirmed and asymptomatic cases in October was up from September.，Metro passenger flow in major cities has fallen again.，Driving the momentum of catering consumption to fall again。
Automobile consumption，Li Chao's macro team said.，Influenced by the epidemic, the car market is under pressure，Marginal slowdown in October。In October, the epidemic occurred frequently in many places.，Car market sales will face greater pressure。But，The policy of halving the purchase tax is approaching its expiration, and the terminal discount is increasing.、Under the influence of factors such as the continuous strengthening of consumption promotion policies，It is expected that the production and sales of the automobile market will resume a strong trend by the end of the，Form a certain support for consumption。
Look to the future，Li Chao's macro team said.，Household consumption still has room for an upward rebound.。According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,，In the first three quarters of 2022, the real growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents was 3..2%，Real consumer spending grew by just 1. 5%..5%，1-In September, the actual growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was-2.2%，Income growth is not fully reflected in consumption growth.。November is the big month of online consumption.，It is expected that the online shopping festival will help release the consumption potential of residents.。
According to Wind data，The average forecast of 15 institutions for the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in October is 1..75%，The prediction interval is-1.5%To 5.5%，Among them, 12 are predicted to fall year-on-year.。
