Chinese provinces and cities have released their investment plans for key projects in 2020, and eight of them have announced a total investment of nearly 34 trillion yuan.
As the epidemic situation gradually improved, a new round of investment in the country is about to start.
Statistics showed that as of March 1, 13 provinces and municipalities, including Beijing, hebei, shanxi, Shanghai, heilongjiang, jiangsu, fujian, shandong, henan, yunnan, sichuan, chongqing and ningxia, had released investment plans for key projects in 2020. The list includes 10,326 projects, eight of which have announced a total planned investment of 33.83 trillion yuan. Another eight provinces reported annual investment of about 2.79 trillion yuan.
In addition, has not yet announced the project investment plan area, is speeding up plans to reserve a number of major engineering projects. For example, anhui requires local governments to promptly apply for the investment plan of key provincial projects in 2020, while guizhou requires local governments to submit the first batch of reserve projects before February 14.
& other; Investment will certainly increase this year. Throughout the &; Liu xuezhi, a senior researcher at the bank of communications' financial research center, said that infrastructure investment has been gaining momentum since the fourth quarter of last year.
1, infrastructure investment is the main tone
From the perspective of the regions that have disclosed specific investment plans, infrastructure investment is an important part of the local investment plans, and the investment in some regions even accounts for more than half of the total investment.
In chongqing, for example, 924 major construction projects with a total investment of 2.7 trillion yuan will be launched in 2020, with an annual investment of 340 billion yuan. The largest investment is in infrastructure, including 367 projects in transportation, municipal administration, water conservancy, ecological protection, energy and communications, with a planned investment of about 1.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 85% of the total.
Yunnan has launched a special focus on infrastructure “ Double tenth & throughout; Major projects with a total investment of about 3.6 trillion yuan. New projects accounted for more than half of the total, with a total investment of about 2 trillion yuan.
& other; Compared with consumption-driven investment, infrastructure investment has a more direct mechanism of action and policies have a faster effect. Secondly, in the weak areas such as the central and western regions and the new countryside, there is still much room for growth in infrastructure investment. Throughout the &; Liu xuezhi believes that from the January and February economic data, the superimposed epidemic impact, economic downward pressure will be further increased, to infrastructure and investment stability and drive economic growth will be more prominent role.
A meeting of the politburo of the communist party of China (CPC) central committee on February 21st sent the same signal. The meeting stressed the need to actively expand effective demand, promote the recovery of consumption and release of potential, give full play to the key role of effective investment, step up the construction of new investment projects and accelerate the progress of projects under construction.
Reporters observed that in addition to the construction project and the new project, many areas have disclosed a considerable amount of preparatory projects. For example, shandong has announced 88 major preparatory projects, while hebei has arranged 143 preliminary projects, accounting for nearly 30% of the total, indicating that local governments have made certain project reserves to hedge against potential economic downturn risks.
2, trillion investment money from where?
The project investment list has been set, the next step is to race against the epidemic, how to put the loss. Rob & throughout; Come back?
To ensure the immediate resumption of a number of key projects in the wake of the outbreak, local governments are gearing up. Hebei has asked city leaders to contract out 536 key provincial projects, all of which must start construction by the end of June. Heilongjiang implementation “ One hundred projects ” In a few days, we used the 9 policies to approve and approve 18 key projects.
But the experts interviewed all asked the same question: where does the money come from?
From the information that has been disclosed, the project investment in many places than in previous years has risen. Compared with 2019, the number of major construction projects and total investment in chongqing will both increase by more than 30% in 2020, especially the number of new projects and total investment will increase by nearly 70% and 40% respectively. Jiangsu plans to invest 541bn yuan, an increase of 8bn yuan over the previous year.
Speedy macro and fixed income securities senior analyst for Xiao Yang told reporters that the local governments get there are generally two kinds of project financing way, one is the government allocated; The second is through a variety of channels to raise funds, currently accounting for about 45-50% of the proportion. The latter mainly includes general debt, special debt, platform debt, platform loan, PPP and so on.
& other; But now that fiscal revenue and fund revenue are falling, local governments' financial resources are already tight, and fiscal space is expected to be limited. Throughout the &; Yang for Xiao said, then see how much the financing channels of space.
On February 24, the ministry of finance (mof) will expand the issuance of special bonds for local governments, according to a statement by the ministry of finance (mof) assistant minister of finance and party member ao wenhan at a press conference. Money follows projects. To guide the local government to do a good job in project reserve and preparatory work, as soon as possible to form an effective investment.
However, local debt space is also limited. After the four-trillion-yuan economic stimulus at the end of 2008, China's macro leverage ratio increased from 142% to 256% in 2017, zhang said. Part of the local government debt that formed at that time is still being unwound.
& other; The demand may be unlimited, but the demand with the ability to pay is limited. Effective and rational allocation of scarce resources is the key to sustainable development. Throughout the &; Zhang yansheng stressed that infrastructure investment is not only a means of driving economic growth, but also an important means of equalizing people's livelihood and basic public services.
It is reported that in order to raise funds through multiple channels, Beijing clearly stipulates that the proportion of social investment projects mainly invested by private investment shall not be less than 70%. Shanxi branch of the United Nations development bank established a special project to stabilize investment and strengthen weaknesses in the war and epidemic situation, so as to ensure that the project can be fully funded.
3. This is not new. Throughout four trillion &;
It is well known that there are three wagons driving the economy. Investment, consumption, export ” But consumption and exports have been hit hard by the outbreak, and recovery may be delayed as the disease spreads abroad. So the rest of the “ Investment & throughout; Is particularly important.
The situation is reminiscent of 2008. Throughout four trillion &; , but there are actually a lot of differences:
(1) while it was extremely loose, it is now relatively cautious.
M2 growth hit a record 29% in 2009. Although the M2 scale is still increasing, the growth rate has dropped to 8.4%, which is basically in line with the growth rate of nominal GDP.
34 trillion! A wave of new infrastructure investment lists have been released. Throughout four trillion &; What's the difference?
In the second half of 2008 alone, the benchmark lending rate fell from 7.74% to 5.94% in just a few months, giving a big boost to economic activity that year, especially in the housing market.
Currently, with the help of LPR interest rate reform, the real interest rate is separated from the real interest rate, and asymmetric interest rate cut and small-scale interest rate cut become the mainstream. Since last year, the real interest rate (one-year LPR) has fallen four times, a cumulative 26 basis points, while the housing rate (five-year LPR) has fallen only twice, a cumulative 10 basis points.
(2) it was “ Unplanned & throughout; This is a multi-year plan.
In 2008, & other; Throughout 4 trillion &; Unplanned investment combined with leveraged local investment plans could total more than $10 trillion.
The current provincial figure of $34 trillion is not a single year, but mostly cumulative investment over the next few years.
Chongqing municipality, for example, will carry out 924 major construction projects in 2020, with an estimated total investment of 2.7 trillion yuan, of which 340 billion yuan will be invested annually.
(3) it used to be the traditional infrastructure, but now it is. New infrastructure & throughout; The proportion increased significantly.
That year & other; Throughout 4 trillion &; It mainly invests in traditional infrastructure represented by railway, highway, water conservancy and municipal pipe network. And this time, New infrastructure & throughout; And people's livelihood infrastructure.
Take chongqing as an example. According to the relevant person in charge of chongqing, the total investment of the projects focusing on intelligent implementation to accelerate industrial upgrading and strengthen the chain is about 561 billion yuan, and the annual investment is expected to be 81 billion yuan, making it the second most important investment sector after infrastructure. The projects cover big data intelligence, biological medicine, environmental protection, automobile and motorcycle, materials, equipment, logistics, tourism and so on. Source: | 21st century economic report, national economic strategy, huaxi securities, kaifengjun 2020, xinhua chongqing, 21 capital
