Guotai Junan: August Excavator Sales Slightly Better Than Expected, Real Estate Policies Have Been Introduced, Construction Machinery Industry Is Expected to Benefit

Zhitong FinanceAPPBe informed，Guotai Junan released a research report.，Excavator sales in August were slightly better than expected.，With the introduction of relevant policies in the real estate industry，Domestic construction machinery industry is expected to benefit。Export sales are lower than expected，Overseas markets declined year-on-year due to high base impact，Wait for the industry to recover。The bank believes that export substitution remains resilient.+The trend of increasing efficiency of electrification+Domestic real estate infrastructure policy support，The industry is expected to recover，Recommended to be globally competitive+Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., a Main Engine Factory with Smooth Electrification(600031.SH)、XCMG(000425.SZ)、Hengli hydraulic pressure for non-excavation business(601100.SH)、Construction machinery positively related to operating rate、Zhejiang Dingli, a Domestic Giant with Continuous Growth of Aerial Work Platform(603338.SH)。

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows.：

Excavator sales in August were slightly better than expected.，The industry continues to build the bottom。

According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association on the main manufacturing enterprises of Excavators，2023M8 Sales of 13105 for excavators/-27.5%/Ring ratio+4.0%，Slightly better than beforeCMEExpected 12600 station。Look at the area，5669 sets are sold domestically/-37.7%/Ring ratio+10.9%，Slightly better than beforeCMEPredicted 5300 units，Decline from July(-44.7%)Narrowed，The main reason is that the downstream demand of domestic construction machinery is weak.;7436 sets are exported/-17.2%/Ring ratio-0.8%，Slightly better than beforeCME7300 units forecasted，The year-on-year decline in export sales was mainly due to the high base stage.，The overseas market development of domestic construction machinery enterprises has entered a period of steady development。

Customers are in the wait-and-see stage after the standard upgrade of excavators，Real estate support policies have been introduced.。

Implementation of the Fourth National Standard in December 2022，The transaction price of domestic excavators increased by 2%-4%，Some customers are on the sidelines.，Customer acceptance of new machines needs to be guided。In July 2023, the Politburo meeting pointed out that：“We should timely adjust and optimize the real estate policy.，Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market”，It is expected that follow-up policies will be introduced to boost the market，Drive the recovery of real estate and construction machinery industry。End of August, Guangzhou、Shenzhen and other first-tier cities have been introduced.“Recognize the house but not the loan”Policies to support the real estate industry，Optimistic about policies to boost the domestic market，Drive the recovery of real estate and upstream construction machinery industry。

Steady growth of overseas market demand，Mining equipment and electric equipment are the main breakthrough points.。

According to the General Administration of Customs of China，2023 1-Exports of construction machinery products in July 290.$900 million/+20.1%，Domestic enterprises speed up going to sea。Look at the products，In July, the export sales of excavator products declined year-on-year.，The export growth rate of lifting machinery increased.。Considering that the entry sequence of construction machinery is excavator、Crane、Pump、Tower Crane，We judge，Overseas market construction enters the next stage，Product demand structure switching。Considering the impact of high export base of excavators in 2022，Export growth is expected to stabilize。Large mining machine with high access threshold、Electric equipment or the next breakthrough，Domestic complete machine enterprises focusing on high-tech accumulation。

Risk warning：Real estate continues to decline;Slow progress of key projects。

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