Caitong Securities: The bottom of the construction machinery sector is now expected to be the fourth quarter of excavator sales or better than expected.
October 13, 2022
Caitong Securities released a research report.，Sales of Excavators continued to grow positively in September，Marginal improvement in demand brought about by accelerated landing of infrastructure projects and continued easing of real estate regulation policies，The export of superimposed Excavators continues to increase and the national standard is about to switch.，Excavator sales are expected to be better than expected in the fourth quarter.。Under the background of stable fundamentals bottoming out，The bank believes that the bottom of the plate has also emerged.，Look ahead and wait for more stimulus policies to stabilize the economy by the end of the year.，Resonance with fundamental rebound。
Event：According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturing enterprises by China Construction Machinery Industry Association，In September 2022, a total of 21187 of excavators were sold.，Year-on-year growth of 5.5%。Among them, the domestic market sells 10520.，Year-on-year decline of 24.5%;Export Sales 10667 Desk，Year-on-year growth of 73.3%。
The main points of Caitong Securities are as follows:：
Excavator sales maintained positive growth in September，National standard switching is expected to help excavator sales continue to improve in the fourth quarter。
2022 1-September，Total sales of excavators in China: 20.Million units，Year-on-year decline of 28.3%;Sales of excavators in September 2.10,000 units，Year-on-year growth of 5.5%;Better than beforeCMEExpectations(CMEExpected sales of excavators in September 1.80,000 units，Year-on-year decline of 9%)。In July, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales turned positive for the first time.，Sustained positive growth in September，Under the influence of the steady growth policy and the low base factor of last year，Construction machinery industry gradually ushered in marginal improvement。December 1, 2022，Excavators and other non-road mobile machinery“Guo Si”Emission standards are about to be switched，After switching“Kunisan”Standard new machines will not be available for sale。The bank believes that the national standard switching is expected to speed up the renewal process of old equipment.，Overlay 11、The arrival of the small peak season at the end of December，Excavator sales in the fourth quarter may be better than expected。
Excavator exports accounted for more than 50% in a single month for the first time%，Overseas exports have become an important force to smooth cyclical fluctuations in the industry.。
2022 1-September，Excavator outlet 8.Million units，Year-on-year growth of 70.5%，Exports accounted for 40 percent.1%;Of which 1 was exported in September.10,000 units，Year-on-year growth of 73.3%，The proportion of exports in a single month increased to 50.3%，Exports account for more than 50% for the first time%。The development of construction machinery industry is not synchronized in different countries and regions.，A cyclical decline in a country has less impact on the global layout of construction machinery enterprises.。The bank believes that with the continuous expansion of domestic main engine factories in overseas markets,，Domestic brands continue to increase their share in overseas markets，Construction machinery export growth is expected to continue steady growth，Overseas export is expected to become an important force for China's construction machinery industry to smooth cyclical fluctuations.。
Real estate regulation policy continues to be relaxed，The growth rate of infrastructure investment has gradually picked up.，Construction machinery demand is expected to usher in marginal improvement。
Since the beginning of the year，Real estate regulation policy continues to be relaxed，Starting from supporting reasonable housing demand and expanding the profits of land market projects，Improve the downward trend of weak supply and demand in the real estate market on both sides。2022 1-August，Investment in real estate development decreased by 7 percent.4%，New construction area decreased by 37.2%，New construction area continues to grow negatively。Real estate is an important downstream area of construction machinery industry.，The marginal relaxation of real estate policy is expected to drive the demand of construction machinery industry to pick up.。2022 1-August，The growth rate of fixed asset investment in infrastructure increased by 10% over the same period..4%，The growth rate has gradually picked up。1-August，The issuance of local government special bonds amounted to 4.3 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 54.6%;The issuance of local government special bonds is obviously faster than in previous years.，Special bond issuance is expected to ease financial pressure，Construction of large-scale projects is expected to speed up，The driving effect of infrastructure on the demand of construction machinery industry is expected to continue.。
