The economic impact of a sudden outbreak of pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus has been a major concern. Since January 31, the world health organization (WHO) has declared a new coronavirus outbreak. Public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) ” Since then, there have been growing concerns about the impact of the outbreak on China's economy. What is the impact of the outbreak on China's economy? Listen to the analysis of leading experts.
question: can the economic fundamentals be stabilized?
short-term interference does not affect medium - and long-term trend
& other; The impact of the new coronavirus-infected pneumonia on China's economy is a short-term external shock and has little impact on the long-term development trend of the economy. Throughout the &; Wang xiaoguang, deputy director of the economics department at the party school of the CPC central committee (the national school of administration), said that in general, major emergencies in a country will inevitably have a negative impact on short-term economic development, but will not have a substantial impact on the medium - and long-term economy. After the shock subsides, economic and social activities will return to normal.
Experts believe that from the perspective of industry, the short-term impact on February and march's service industry is relatively large, with tourism, catering, hotel and aviation industry being the most affected. Due to the decline in the availability of express delivery, the commercial retail industry, including online shopping, will be greatly affected. For industry and construction, there was a slight impact in the first quarter, mainly in February, before returning to normal in March.
Yang liqiang, associate researcher at the institute of international economics at the university of international business and economics. Throughout the city & sealing; Measures such as restricting the flow of people and suspending production and shut-down of enterprises will impact China's economy in the short term, but these measures are conducive to the prevention and control of the epidemic. Pent-up demand during the outbreak will rebound after the outbreak, driving the economic recovery, and China's economy is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year. In the medium and long run, the epidemic will not change the long-term trend of China's economic development.
& other; The outbreak can be seen as a short-term economic shock that shifts aggregate demand and supply curves in the short term. But over time, the shock will fade and growth will eventually return to its original trajectory. Therefore, in the long run does not affect the economy to the good underlying trend. Throughout the &; Wang chenwei, associate researcher at the China academy of macroeconomics.
q: can small and medium-sized enterprises sustain?
smes will be under great pressure
Affected by the epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday is extended, the movement of personnel is limited, and the resumption of work is delayed in various places. The short-term impact of the epidemic on China's economy is inevitable. In particular, the current short-term decline in consumer demand has had a significant impact on the catering, tourism, entertainment and other service industries in many areas. Experts generally believe that market players seriously affected by the outbreak are facing greater pressure for survival, especially small and medium-sized manufacturing and service enterprises, which deserve attention.
Yang liqiang believes that the decline in consumer demand may lead to some small and medium-sized enterprises due to lack of order cash flow problems. It should be noted that the limited flow of personnel also directly or indirectly leads to the rise of national logistics costs. While pushing up prices in the short term, it may also lead to the impact of some enterprises' supply chains and rework after the holiday, which will raise the production costs of enterprises. Wang xiaoguang believes that some small micro-service enterprises or because it is difficult to bear short-term impact, may be closed down.
In addition, export and investment activities may be affected during the outbreak. Wang chenwei said that objectively speaking, some countries may limit the spread of the epidemic and impose restrictions on China's exports for a period of time. At the same time, investment activities may slow down, because many economic activities will be restricted recently, the early application procedures for investment projects may be delayed, directly affecting the progress of project construction.
key assistance to smes in difficulties
& other; Pressure downward in the current economic backdrop, the government needs to introduce some corresponding measures, especially the need for small and medium-sized enterprises, affected the larger industries, in terms of taxes and fees, financial and social security supportive policies, help specific businesses, industries, regions and people through, to reduce the outbreak impact on China's economic development. Throughout the &; "Wang said.
Sheng chaoxun, deputy director of the industry institute of the China academy of macroeconomic research, said that on the one hand, Banks should give profits to the real economy and reduce financial costs by cutting interest rates. Whether for personal loans or corporate loans, they should be granted a special period of extension, to avoid capital chain rupture, leading to the bankruptcy of enterprises or individuals. On the other hand, don't drink poison to quench your thirst. Insist on & other; Housing is not hot; Policy will not waver.
Yang liqiang said that after the outbreak ended, measures such as tax cuts and subsidies should be adopted to further stimulate consumption, support and help affected service enterprises to resume production and operation, and relieve employment pressure. Through various forms of policy measures to support the affected manufacturing enterprises and foreign trade enterprises.
Q: how to turn a crisis into an opportunity in an outbreak?
should see the potential positive factor
While the short-term impact of this outbreak on the economy is inevitable, we should not overstate its negative impact. We should see potential positive factors, such as the efforts of some industries to turn crisis into opportunity.
& other; Under the influence of the epidemic, e-commerce, e-government, home office, virtual conference/business, online teaching and other new formats and models will usher in a new round of rapid development. Throughout the &; Yang liqiang believes that the application of cutting-edge technologies such as Internet, artificial intelligence and big data will further penetrate and expand into various fields such as public life, business operation, government management and education and training. He pointed out that the improvement and reform of the disease prevention and control system and the development of related industries will also become important economic growth points after the outbreak.
& other; As early as 2003 in the fight against SARS, tencent, jd, alibaba and many other enterprises for ‘ Life & rsquo; Forced to self-evolution, and finally break through the cocoon into a butterfly. Throughout the &; Wang chenwei said that while the outbreak has brought negative effects to some industries, it may not be an opportunity for industry consolidation and upgrading. & other; As long as these businesses don't fail in the epidemic, then some of the epidemic has passed. Hold it in for a long time. Economic activity will be concentrated. There will also be a strong economic rebound after the outbreak. Throughout the &;
Experts also believe that through the outbreak prevention and control war, the government's governance capacity will be greatly improved, which will help improve the business environment in the medium and long term. & other; Since the outbreak of the epidemic, governments at all levels have taken the most comprehensive and rigorous prevention and control measures in a highly responsible attitude toward people's health. The world health organization and many other countries have given full recognition and high evaluation to China's approach. The extremely complex process from outbreak prevention to patient care to education is a government agency. Big test & rsquo; And exercise, the ability of government governance will be improved. Throughout the &; Yang liqiang said.
precise measures to deal with impacts
& other; Effectively stopping the spread of the epidemic is the most effective measure to reduce the economic impact of the epidemic. Throughout the &; Sheng chaoxun, deputy director of the industry institute of the Chinese academy of macroeconomic research, said that the most important thing is to control the epidemic, increase international notification and information sharing, strengthen international cooperation on viruses, vaccines and reagents, launch vaccines as soon as possible, and control the epidemic earlier, so that everyone can focus on returning to the main economic battlefield.
Yang liqiang suggested that during the outbreak, strong measures should be taken to effectively reduce the degree of impact on logistics, to ensure the effective operation of enterprise supply chains while ensuring people's living needs. At the same time, measures can be taken to allow and support enterprises with conditions to carry out virtual commerce in different places, such as virtual meetings and home office, so as to improve the level of e-government facilitation.
& other; At present, there is an urgent need to send positive policy signals to guide public expectations, strengthen confidence in winning the battle of epidemic prevention and control, and ensure steady economic development. Throughout the &; Yang liqiang said.
Wang chenwei believes that it is necessary to strengthen the special period of economic monitoring and early warning work. The main economic indicators and the development of enterprises during the epidemic period were timely tracked and analyzed. We will promptly identify new changes and situations brought about by the epidemic to the economy, carefully study countermeasures in view of special situations and emergencies, and effectively respond to them.
make medium and long-term development plan
Experts said that the economic measures taken in response to the outbreak should not only be based on solving the current pressing practical problems, but also focus on long-term high-quality economic development, and resolutely avoid flooding economic expansion measures, and resolutely avoid going down the old road of extensive investment-led.
& other; For some projects not affected by the epidemic, the preliminary work should be done well. After the outbreak may usher in a wave of economic rebound, related affected by the outbreak of investment and construction projects will accelerate the construction, layout planning in advance. Throughout the &; Wang chenwei said that for the urban areas where the population flows into the region, we can plan for appropriate advanced infrastructure construction, increase investment in roads, education, health care and other industries, so as to stimulate demand, stabilize employment, improve infrastructure and increase the potential growth rate of the economy.
Sheng chaoxun suggested that we should accelerate the cultivation of new pillar industries and ldquo; New infrastructure & throughout; Construction. For example, we will vigorously develop knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industries such as office automation, artificial intelligence, life and health, new energy and new materials to meet the development needs of industries such as 5G, intelligent internet-connected automobiles, quantum communication, e-commerce, online medical treatment and distance education. At the same time, we will accelerate the construction of next-generation information technologies and new types of infrastructure centered on digitalization to support the upgrading and development of industrial and social networking, digitalization and intelligentization.
Wang also believes that after the end of the epidemic, it is necessary to further reform the holiday system, it should be appropriate to increase the number of holidays in the middle of the year, such as the summer holiday system in July and August, which will play a positive role in improving people's living standards and promoting consumption.
& other; In the medium and long run, the growth potential of the Chinese economy has not yet been fully unleashed, there is still more room for institutional innovation, and there is still more room for maneuver in China's macroeconomic policies. China's economic resilience and resilience will be further enhanced after the outbreak of the disease and other tests. Throughout the &; Yang liqiang said. Source: economic daily WeChat public account
