Under the sustained efforts of a number of policies，The role of consumption in stimulating economic growth has been gradually enhanced.。Despite the slowdown in tourism consumption growth，However, service consumption activities continue to pick up.，It has played an important role in boosting the improvement of market expectations.。
Statistics Bureau data show，Final consumption expenditure contributed 66% to economic growth in the first quarter..6%，In the first five months, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3% faster than that in the first quarter..5 percentage points，The market shows a good growth trend of service consumption.、The characteristics of large consumption are rising.。
However，Affected by the weakness of real estate investment，Prices of major building materials continued to fall in June.，This shows that construction demand is still relatively weak.，Construction Purchasing Managers' Index（PMI）The change also confirms this prediction.。From the perspective of data change，PMIAlready from 65 in March.6%Three consecutive months of decline，In JunePMI55.7%，Down 2% from the previous month.5 percentage points。
According to Fitch Ratings，Since this year，Construction activity continues to slow down due to weak real estate investment，However, it is driven by infrastructure investment and seasonal demand.，Infrastructure-related construction activities may be re-accelerated in the second half of the year.。
Real estate investment is weak
“When the balance sheet of housing enterprises is not fully repaired.，Real estate enterprises‘Payment collection-Take the land-Get to work-Delivery-Sales return’There are still places where the circulation is not smooth.，To a certain extent, this has reduced the willingness of enterprises to take land and start new construction.。”The growth rate of real estate is less than expected.，Yan Yan, Chairman and President of Sino-Credit International, summed up this.。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics，1～ May ，National commercial housing sales area year-on-year decline expanded，Real estate development and construction is still in the doldrums。Correspondingly,，1～May，The investment in real estate development nationwide was 457.01 billion yuan.，Year-on-year decline of 7.2%（Calculated on a comparable basis），Among them, the residential investment is 3,480.9 billion yuan.，Year-on-year decline of 6.4%。
A financial practitioner said.，Real estate investment has a high leverage attribute.，Therefore, it is closely related to monetary policy.，Against the background that market expectations are not optimistic.，Housing enterprises will also be more cautious in investment.，They will choose to wait and see more about the rhythm of market entry.，This will slow down the overall investment progress.。
Dragged down by real estate investment，Construction industry segment data also fell.。
The China Purchasing Manager Index released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that，June，IntegratedPMIThe output index is 52.3%，Down 0% from the previous month.6 percentage points。Look at different industries，The new orders index of the construction industry was 48..7%，Down 0% from the previous month.8 percentage points；The input price index is 51..8%，Up 7% from the previous month.1 percentage point；The sales price index was 51..6%，Up 4% from the previous month.7 percentage points。
Relevant personnel of the National Bureau of Statistics said.，From the perspective of market expectation，The expected index of business activities in the construction industry is 60..3%，Down 1% from the previous month.8 percentage points，But it has been at 60 this year.%Above the high boom zone.，That means，Construction enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.。
In view of the current economic situation，Counter-cyclical adjustment has attracted much attention.，Among them, quasi-fiscal instruments such as policy-oriented development financial instruments have also become an important source of incremental funds.。
The reporter learned，Last year, the central government launched two batches of financial instruments.，The total scale is 740 billion yuan.，This has effectively supplemented the capital sources of a number of projects.。On the topic of whether it will be launched this year，《Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the First Quarter of 2023》Point out，Will continue to play the role of policy-oriented development financial instruments。
Guosheng Securities Research Report said.，According to the above executive report,，It is expected that policy-oriented development financial instruments may enter the market in the second half of the year.，This has become a source of funds for steady growth.。In terms of scale，This year's quota is expected to be the same as last year's.，Even higher than last year。
Policies continue to work hard
Based on the real estate investment situation，The market thinks，From the perspective of investment patterns，Infrastructure investment will play a significant role in stimulating economic growth in the second half of the year.。
Enter July，Xinjiang Region Releases Progress of Infrastructure Projects in the Year。Statistics show，The growth rate of investment in infrastructure projects in Xinjiang is significantly higher than the national level.。1～In May, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure reached 33 percent%，Significantly higher than the national performance in the same period。Among，Southern Xinjiang region has obvious contribution to make up for the shortcomings.。
Everbright Securities analysis believes that，At present, the southern Xinjiang region is vigorously developing water conservancy.、Infrastructure construction in the field of transportation，This provides a hardware foundation for regional economic development.。
Except Xinjiang，Local governments have also begun to disclose the progress of large projects.。
According to the news released recently by the Fujian Provincial Department of Transportation,，In May this year，Investment in highway and waterway transportation in Fujian completed 88.7.8 billion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 11.8%。1～Accumulated investment completed in May 458.7.6 billion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 4.4%，Overscheduled Progress 4.2 percentage points。
Chongqing Development and Reform Commission disclosed that，1～In May, Chongqing's infrastructure investment increased by 9..8%，Higher than the national level 2.3 percentage points，Among them, transportation investment grew by 10% year-on-year.9%。
Luo Yifei, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced.，Since this year，The driving role of investment in large projects has been enhanced.。First 5 months，Projects with a total planned investment of 100 million yuan or more were completed, up 10% year-on-year.2%，4 percentage points higher than the total investment，The contribution rate to total investment growth was 83 percent.3%，An increase of 2 percentage points over the previous 4 months，Driving the growth of total investment 5.2 percentage points。
From the feedback from market participants，Affected by large projects，In the second half of the year, the pulling effect of investment on China's steady economic growth will also be further revealed.。
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said.，As the fundamental driving force to stimulate domestic demand.，Stable investment is an important force to maintain economic growth.，Compared with other industries，Investment in manufacturing and high-tech industries usually grows faster.。
A set of data also confirms Luo Zhiheng's judgment.。Statistics show，First 5 months of this year，Manufacturing investment increased by 10% year-on-year.6%，Investment in high-tech industries increased by 20% year-on-year.5%，Overall，Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries has been maintained at 20 percent%Above。
Luo Zhiheng explained，Effective investment and consumption supported by income are the key to expanding domestic demand.，Investment activities tend to create economic demand in the short term.，In general，Manufacturing investment, especially in the middle and lower reaches, is more market-oriented in competitive industries.，The transmission channel of the policy is long.，Market impact is relatively limited。
Combining with the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council，In the future, qualified policies and measures should be introduced in a timely manner.、Hurry up to implement，At the same time, we should strengthen the reserve of policy measures.，Maximize the comprehensive effect of policies。
“In addition to policy-oriented development financial instruments，The counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy will also increase in the second half of the year.，It will be a big probability that the issuance rhythm of special bonds will be accelerated again.，These measures will increase the marginal growth rate of infrastructure investment.。”A fiscal and taxation personage predicted.。
