Since the outbreak of xinguan epidemic in early 2020, the production of construction machinery and downstream construction has been restricted, which may adversely affect sales in the short term.
Looking forward to 2020, under the background of high base, the Excavator industry is still expected to grow positively. Stock market, leading enterprises by virtue of technology, scale, channels and other advantages, market share will continue to improve. Institutions continue to strongly recommend the performance of high certainty, low valuation of construction machinery leading enterprises.
1, the resumption of SARS, the outbreak of the construction machinery industry supply and demand limited impact. In 2003, SARS began in November 2002, but the outbreak lasted from march to may. It basically subsided in June and lasted for about half a year. From march to May 2003, the main downstream of engineering machinery — & ndash; The construction of real estate and infrastructure has not been greatly affected; At that time, the sales volume of the main types of construction machinery loaders still maintained a high growth rate of 30-50%, and the sales volume increased by more than 70% in the months after the end of the epidemic, which had an obvious gap effect. Companies that have done well have been strong, even rising, during the outbreak.
2. Short-term sales are under pressure, the peak season moves back, and the annual demand is still optimistic. In terms of production, the main construction machinery enterprises have basically postponed to February 10 to resume work according to local requirements, but some enterprises have started small batch production. The main engine factory is now in full stock and local staff of parts manufacturers have arranged to work overtime during the Chinese New Year holiday. On the demand side, the downstream construction will be delayed to different degrees in the short term, and the delivery logistics of the main engine factory will be limited to some extent, so the short-term sales will be affected. Q1 is usually the peak season for sales of construction machinery, accounting for 30% of the annual sales. This outbreak had a great impact on Q1 sales. However, after the outbreak has eased, the infrastructure plays an obvious role in supporting the economy and environmental protection is still needed to accelerate the renewal. Referring to the experience of SARS in 2003, it is believed that the sales season will move back, and the annual demand is still optimistic.
3, update demand to determine the stack of new demand is guaranteed, the industry will continue. On the one hand, the update requirement is Safety cushion & throughout; One of the core driving force, is the current demand, is also one of the reasons for this industry for more than expected, peak industry at present is still in the update, and stricter environmental protection policy, the current ownership, before the two drivers accounted for more than 7, the future as the four standards fall to the ground, before the two drivers gradually withdraw from the market, update demand uncertainty is strong; , on the other hand, under the background of economic downward pressure, countercyclical regulation is still the first choice, special bonds under the catalysis of infrastructure investment growth rebounded and property will remain toughness, new requirements of security, in addition, the current export base is still low, as the domestic enterprises overseas layout results show that export growth is expected to remain high.
4. Leading enterprises have no worries about their performance growth in 2020. Under the stock market, leading enterprises will grab more market share by virtue of their advantages in channels, research and development and services, and their market share will continue to increase. In 2020, assuming that sany's share of the Excavator market increases by 2.0 PCT (with an average annual increase of 1.9 PCT in the past three years), it is estimated that as long as the growth rate of the industry declines by no more than 7% in 2020, the revenue of sany's Excavator sector will achieve positive growth. If the market share increases by one more percentage point, the revenue growth rate of the excavator segment will increase by 3.5 percentage points. Under the background of the continuous repair of corporate statements, the profit growth rate is more flexible and the leading performance growth is carefree.
Good company
Guojin securities pointed out that based on the assumption that the epidemic was basically controllable in mid-to-late February, it was expected that the epidemic might affect the sales volume of construction machinery in the first quarter, and remained optimistic about the sales volume of construction machinery leading main products in the whole year. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the growth of excavator sales was better than market expectations, the growth rate of Truck_crane/ 'target='_blank' style='color:blue;'>Truck Crane sales recovered rapidly, the growth rate of Concrete Machinery maintained a high level, the balance sheet of leading construction machinery companies continued to repair, and the financial indicators were stable and positive. The competitive environment in this cycle and the leading cash flow are better than the last cycle. The large demand brought by the increase of industry ownership in the future can smooth the cycle fluctuation. Continue to recommend construction machinery leading sany heavy industry, hengli hydraulic, zhejiang ding li, zoomlion, XCMG machinery.
Dongwu securities focuses on recommending sany heavy industry: the competitive advantage of the whole series product line and the continuous improvement of the leading concentration; Exports continue to exceed expectations; Industry leader valuation premium. Hengli hydraulic: domestic hydraulic industry leader, overseas expansion + pump valve full volume, growth can be expected. Zoomlion: crane, concrete machine head, concrete machine has just started the renewal cycle, tower machine sales are expected to continue to exceed expectations. Suggest attention to liugong, China longgong.
Founder securities pointed out that strengthening steady growth in infrastructure and environmental tighter catalytic update demand under the background of accelerated release, infrastructure, energy, etc as the main downstream of the construction machinery industry is experiencing a rapid recovery, makers and parts related enterprises is expected to benefit fully, strongly recommend sany, constant current hydraulic, xugong, zoomlion, eddy precision machine and core components leading enterprises.
Citic securities pointed out that the recent infrastructure construction continues to increase, according to the base group of citic securities research department, infrastructure is expected to grow by 8% in 2020, and the new construction area of real estate is expected to maintain 0-5% growth. Construction machinery demand growth steady in 2020, according to our ldquo; Drivers & ndash; & ndash; Earthwork quantity & throughout; It is predicted by the model that the sales growth rate of excavators in China is expected to be around 20% in 2020, maintaining the industry. Stronger than the market ” Rating. Recommend sany heavy industry, hengli hydraulic. At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to zoomlion, XCMG machinery, Eddie precision and so on.
Northeast securities is optimistic about the development of construction machinery leading companies, recommended sany heavy industry, XCMG machinery, zoomlion. Among them, XCMG machinery has the logic of state-owned enterprise reform, flexibility is relatively large, worthy of attention, related industrial chain companies also include construction machinery and hengli hydraulic.
